diff --git a/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable-complex/input.mjs b/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable-complex/input.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..d55eaf7cd0ec
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable-complex/input.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+let foo = 'hello';
+
+const mutate = () => {
+  foo = 'goodbye';
+}
+
+export const Component = () => {
+  if (Math.random() > 0.5) mutate();
+  return <span>{foo}</span>;
+};
diff --git a/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable-complex/output.mjs b/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable-complex/output.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..83c8f677226e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable-complex/output.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+let foo = 'hello';
+
+const mutate = () => {
+  foo = 'goodbye';
+};
+
+export const Component = () => {
+  if (Math.random() > 0.5) mutate();
+  return <span>{foo}</span>;
+};
diff --git a/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable/input.mjs b/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable/input.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..1225d11e87eb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable/input.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+let foo = 'hello';
+
+export const Component = () => {
+  foo = 'goodbye';
+  return <span>{foo}</span>;
+};
diff --git a/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable/output.mjs b/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable/output.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..dd266a198d47
--- /dev/null
+++ b/packages/babel-plugin-transform-react-constant-elements/test/fixtures/constant-elements/deopt-mutable/output.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+let foo = 'hello';
+export const Component = () => {
+  foo = 'goodbye';
+  return <span>{foo}</span>;
+};
diff --git a/packages/babel-traverse/src/path/lib/hoister.js b/packages/babel-traverse/src/path/lib/hoister.js
index 2fd8339eaa7d..7e7f85034628 100644
--- a/packages/babel-traverse/src/path/lib/hoister.js
+++ b/packages/babel-traverse/src/path/lib/hoister.js
@@ -32,6 +32,15 @@ const referenceVisitor = {
     const binding = path.scope.getBinding(path.node.name);
     if (!binding) return;
 
+    // we can handle reassignments only if they happen in the same scope as the declaration
+    for (const violation of binding.constantViolations) {
+      if (violation.scope !== binding.path.scope) {
+        state.mutableBinding = true;
+        path.stop();
+        return;
+      }
+    }
+
     // this binding isn't accessible from the parent scope so we can safely ignore it
     // eg. it's in a closure etc
     if (binding !== state.scope.getBinding(path.node.name)) return;
@@ -46,6 +55,9 @@ export default class PathHoister {
     this.breakOnScopePaths = [];
     // Storage for bindings that may affect what path we can hoist to.
     this.bindings = {};
+    // "true" if the current path contains a reference to a binding whose
+    // value can change and thus can't be safely hoisted.
+    this.mutableBinding = false;
     // Storage for eligible scopes.
     this.scopes = [];
     // Our original scope and path.
@@ -195,6 +207,8 @@ export default class PathHoister {
   run() {
     this.path.traverse(referenceVisitor, this);
 
+    if (this.mutableBinding) return;
+
     this.getCompatibleScopes();
 
     const attachTo = this.getAttachmentPath();